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18 de Mayo 2007

Efecto de Crecidas en Nueva York en Google Earth - Parte II

Nueva York inundado 8 metros en Google EarthHace tiempo a comienzos de Abril compartí algo divertido que hizo alguien de la CGE llamado 'Bzoltan' que mostraba el efecto que causaría el mar si subiera entre 1 y 100 metros. Se aprovechó del terreno 3D de Google Earth y la habilidad de poner polígonos 3D a diferentes altitudes sobre el nivel del mar. Digo "divertido" porque la verdad que 100 metros es algo medio difícil de que suceda, pero, ciertamente que este tema tiene serias implicancias detrás. Bzoltan utilizó una simple esfera y la capacidad de GE para animar en el tiempo, para permitirnos tener una aproximación dinámica de lo que podría suceder. Y, sólo para divertirse, también lo hizo con el Cañón del Colorado, permitiéndonos ver cómo quedaría lleno de agua.

Mientras tanto, Leszek Pawlowicz - quien escribe el utilísimo blog Free Geography Tools (FreeGeographyTools.com) - escribió acerca de algunas herramientas de software disponibles para hacer un más serio análisis de los efectos de crecidas. Leszek utilizó datos de terreno de alta resolución del USGS, y algún software libre de la Academia Naval de Estados Unidos, para generar e ilustrar algunas animaciones interesantes y más precisas de los efectos de crecidas. Le sugerí producir visualizaciones para Google Earth, y ayer publicó un archivo KML que muestra este efecto de las aguas subiendo 8 metros en Nueva York . Si estás utilizando este archivo, o lees su muy informativo nota de Blog, verás que es una imagen superpuesta con una forma que fué cortada de un terreno de alta resolución del área. Habiliten la capa Edificios 3D para darle tridimensionalidad a la escena. Leszek planea hacer una animación más realista para Google Earth . Mientras tanto, pueden ver su película mostrando las crecidas de aguas para Manhattan, utilizando otras herramientas:

Enviado por FrankTaylor at 18 de Mayo 2007 a las 06:39 AM

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  • Comentarios

    Well, just "for fun" I'd like to see your neighborhood under water. I would enjoy it very much in light of the picture above.

    Enviado por: michele at 18 de Mayo 2007 a las 04:51 PM

    Just think instead of being brainwashed by everyone.
    -How much H2O is available that isn't already in the form of water?
    -How much water does ice make when it melts?
    -What is the surface are of the earth that this melting ice has to cover?
    -Think about how the slope of the shoreline affects the area that the water has to cover....
    -As the water levels goes up and further away from the surface, do the radians increase? How does that affect the calculations?

    This is only the beginning of the things that most people don't think about... Its time to stop listening to the bs that everyone is feeding you and time to start using a dying skill.... thinking!

    Enviado por: Rick Lempke at 18 de Mayo 2007 a las 09:38 PM

    OK, Mr. Lempke, as the guy who created that image, I accept your challenge to do some thinking, and answer your questions:

    "How much H2O is available that isn't already in the form of water? What is the surface are of the earth that this melting ice has to cover? Think about how the slope of the shoreline affects the area that the water has to cover.... As the water levels goes up and further away from the surface, do the radians increase? How does that affect the calculations?"

    If all the ice in Antarctica and Greenland melted, sea levels would rise 65 meters. And yes, the scientists who have done these calculations are smart enough to take into account the area covered, topography, slopes at the shore, etc.. Why would you think they wouldn't have taken those factors into account?

    Reference: http://www.usatoday.com/weather/resources/askjack/2004-11-21-melting-polar-ice_x.htm

    "How much water does ice make when it melts?"

    The real question I think you're asking is, "What volume of water is ultimately created when a certain volume of ice melts?" And that's not a straightforward answer. When ice at 0C melts into lquid water at 0C, there's a roughly 10% reduction in overall volume. As the water warms from 0C to 4C, it actually shrinks further, but then above 4C it starts expanding again.

    Reference: http://www.lsbu.ac.uk/water/explan2.html

    The predicted rises in sea level occur not just because ice is melting and the meltwater is flowing into the ocean, but because the water that's already in the ocean is expanding as it warms. The last time that temperature were at the levels predicted for the end of this century, 3 million years ago in the Pliocene, the sea level due to both melted ice and expansion was 25 meters higher than it is now.

    Reference: http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20060925/

    I might also add that I chose the value of 8 meters for that image not specifically because of global-warming-induced sea level rise, but because that's the approximate height of the storm surge seen from both Camille and Katrina. NYC hasn't been hit by a major hurricane in over 70 years, but another hit is almost a certainty. So certain, in fact, that some insurers have stopped writing new homeowner's policies in the NY area because of the property damage, and financial losses for them, that such a storm surge could generate.

    If you didn't like my 8-meter image, you'll probably hate my animation (coming on http://freegeotools.blogspot.com later this week); it will take the flooding to 12 meters, the level that would occur if the Greenland icecap melted completely and the West Antarctic ice shelf collapsed. This is the "doomsday" scenario featured in the movie, "An Inconvenient Truth". It's highly unlikely, but scientists agree that it's possible, and if it happens it will happen quickly.

    Enviado por: Leszek Pawlowicz at 21 de Mayo 2007 a las 12:12 PM

    Dear Leszek,

    I am in McLeodganj, a place in Himalyas, where Dalai Lama lives.

    I heard a being telling me that i need to move to hills, as a catostrophe on global scale is coming.

    I could not comprehend intially what he was saying, but I guess the fact he asked me to move to mountains means that it has something to do with water rising.

    I have started searching on google with key word "water rising", you's is the first website that I could hit.

    Can you make a model of 5, 10, 15, 20, upto 60 m and suggest places in the world which will be habitable.

    The being told me that very few places on earth will remain habitable.

    Please help.
    Affectionately.
    Lobsang

    Enviado por: Ruh Lobsang at 22 de Mayo 2007 a las 11:58 PM

    Lobsang,

    If you are in the Himalayas, you don't have to worry about sea level rise directly, since you are almost certainly high enough in elevation to escape the direct consequences of that. You can see that in Google Earth using this global sea level rise simulation:

    http://www.gearthblog.com/blog/archives/2007/04/animation_roundup_ri.html

    My simulation is at a greater spatial resolution, but doesn't cover as much area as BZoltan's.

    But the cause of sea level rise, global warming, is something that none of us can escape by running away, or seeking refuge, since the effects will be everywhere; there's no place any of us can hide from it. For example, I live at an elevation of about 2200 meters, so I don't have to worry about sea level rise. But I live surrounded by pine forests that some say will be gone in 25 years, killed by global-warming-enhanced droughts. And the forests may well disappear by fire, taking me and my house with it. In the Himalayas, warming temperatures and increased snow and ice melt are likely to cause major changes in the environment that you can't run away from. For better or for worse, there is no solution for any individual; we must solve it together, or face the consequences together.

    Leszek

    Enviado por: Leszek Pawlowicz at 23 de Mayo 2007 a las 02:07 PM

    The rising sea levels should be of concern to everybody.

    Furthermore, the climate changes already happening aren't just going to be the bane of the next generations because they're happening right now!

    Moving to higher grounds, of course, makes perfect sense because if your house is under water, it pretty much messes up your day ; )

    Enviado por: Claude Gelinas at 4 de Junio 2007 a las 01:49 AM

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